As winter sets in along the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, a phenomenon is unfolding that requires attention – the commencement of winter breeding for Desert Locusts. The region has experienced early winter rains in parts of southeast Egypt, Sudan, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and northwest Somalia. What makes this noteworthy is the early onset of the winter season, beginning at the end of October, about one to two months earlier than usual.
Key Points:
- Early Winter Season: The early arrival of the winter season, coupled with above-normal rains predicted for November and December, marks the beginning of the first generation of hoppers and adults for Desert Locusts in the region.
- El Niño and Indian Ocean Dipole: The presence of El Niño and the positive phase of the Indian Ocean dipole in Eastern Africa, particularly in south-central Somalia and Kenya, adds complexity to the situation. Despite these climate patterns, rain has fallen in parts of northwest Somalia, which is traditionally the Desert Locust recession area.
- Cyclone Impact: A cyclone in eastern Yemen during late October could potentially contribute to locust breeding in the Empty Quarter, emphasizing the need for thorough surveys in all winter breeding areas.
Current Situation:
- Egypt: Isolated immature solitarious adults observed in subcoastal areas of the southeast coast.
- Mauritania: Isolated immature and mature solitarious adults in the northwest and north; scattered hoppers.
- Saudi Arabia: Scattered immature and mature solitarious adults on the Red Sea coast; treatment conducted on 400 hectares.
- Somalia: Scattered and grouped solitarious, transient, and gregarious mature adults, along with hopper groups on the northwest coast; ongoing data collection.
- Sudan: Scattered immature and mature solitarious adults west of Red Sea Hills and along the coast; one group laying swarm near Karora and Eritrea border; treatment conducted on a band of 30 hectares along the Nile Valley.
- Yemen: Scattered immature and mature solitarious adults observed on the Red Sea coast and some along the Gulf of Aden; a few solitarious hoppers on the Red Sea coast.
Forecast:
Maintaining current efforts for survey and control is crucial as above-normal rains are expected to persist. Key regions to monitor include the Red Sea coast in Sudan and Saudi Arabia, with a likelihood of groups and control operations. Limited developments are anticipated in the northwest and northern Mauritania, while the eastern region is expected to see no significant changes from November to January.
As winter breeding progresses, continued vigilance and proactive measures will be essential to manage and mitigate the impact of Desert Locusts in the affected areas.
